Equity Outlook from Janus Capital

Some pictures from Q3 Global Equity Outlook of Janus Capital

https://www.janus.com/insights/ski-report?utm_campaign=Ski_Report&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&utm_content=Markets

 

Danger Part:

スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.24.19スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.22.27スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.23.40

 

Cloudy Part:

スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.33.09スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.34.12スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.36.22スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.37.47

Historically, when VIX – as the collective expectation of future volatility – is highest, the market’s subsequent three months are better than more benign risk environments スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.38.38スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.39.10

 

Sanguine Part:

Innovators:

Health care: Innovation still matters most and nowhere is innovation more profound, more long lasting and timelier than in the health care sector
Technology: The cloud revolution continues – the two key trends are the adoption of cloud computing and the Internet of Things

スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.43.00

M&A:

in a slow-growth environment, firms will look to buy market share, rather than invest and build it organically
M&A revalues sectors and signals confidence
“we anticipate that technology, health care and industrials will see the most M&A activity”

スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.48.40

 

 

What is the key determinant moving markets?

UBS Investor Forum – July 2016

https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth_management/chief-investment-office/ubs-investor-forum.html

 

Topic 2. What is the key determinant moving markets?

  1. central bank policy
    – central bank are able and committed enough to create reflation, then this will be fixed income bearish in terms of high duration
    – next 6 to 9 months, rates, what happens and what passed, in particular the fed’s
    – almost the half of the FOMC are not economists, they are lawyers, that’s actually a serious problem: a legitimate issue that move away from economic model, you tend to end up with instinct policy making
  2. economic fundamental
    – fed is irrelevant now, it’s all about global growth because this is missing, it’s the lack of global growth, the lack of investment, still pretty low business confidence
  3. politics
    – that’s thing people underestimating and making people change their view on fixed income quickly

 

 

Topic 1. Hedging – portfolio protection in uncertain times