Equity Outlook from Janus Capital

Some pictures from Q3 Global Equity Outlook of Janus Capital



Danger Part:

スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.24.19スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.22.27スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.23.40


Cloudy Part:

スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.33.09スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.34.12スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.36.22スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.37.47

Historically, when VIX – as the collective expectation of future volatility – is highest, the market’s subsequent three months are better than more benign risk environments スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.38.38スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.39.10


Sanguine Part:


Health care: Innovation still matters most and nowhere is innovation more profound, more long lasting and timelier than in the health care sector
Technology: The cloud revolution continues – the two key trends are the adoption of cloud computing and the Internet of Things

スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.43.00


in a slow-growth environment, firms will look to buy market share, rather than invest and build it organically
M&A revalues sectors and signals confidence
“we anticipate that technology, health care and industrials will see the most M&A activity”

スクリーンショット 2016-07-26 20.48.40




“Listen to the Force”

Some info about the hottest topic today


SoftBank’s Son Makes Biggest Wager in Career Built on Tech Bets



SoftBank agreed to buy ARM for 24.3 billion pounds ($32 billion)

– a 43 percent premium to Friday’s close
– Son said all due diligence for the deal has been done in the past two weeks
– SoftBank will fund the acquisition partly through cash and loans


What will Son get:

– gain control of a cash-generating mobile industry leader that gets royalties every time makers of 95 percent of the world’s smartphones (Apple and Samsung accounting for an estimated total of 45 percent of ARM’s sales) adopt its chip designs, which are considered power-saving and efficient.

–  The great opportunity of  ‘Internet of Things’

– prediction that succeeding generations will come to depend on smart appliances, gadgets and office gear that talk to each other and function free of much human intervention.
– for that to work, each of them must come with a microchip, and Son’s betting it’ll be an ARM design.

(“most of today’s tablets and phones run on Qualcomm chips: they did $26B in sales last year. These chips re-package ARMH designs. The Internet of Things (IOT) uses ARMH technology.” Qualcomm vs ARM ?????? )

The strength of ARM:

– ARM’s model is based on the idea of spreading risk and profits. It does the underlying work and makes more money when its customers sell more things.
(The key is CHEAP, £406 million turnover in 2015 with 85% mobile market share)

– unlike Intel, ARM doesn’t actually manufacture semiconductors. Instead, it licenses its designs to companies such as Samsung Electronics Co., which own the fabrication plants required to manufacture the parts.

– lucrative, freeing the company of the costly job of building such plants
– brands like Apple and Samsung can focus on higher-level innovations instead of grunt work, while custom chipmakers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. deal with actual fabrication.


Problems for Softbank:

– Debt: the Tokyo-based company remains mired in $106 billion of total debt on its balance sheet at the end of March, but less than $23 billion in cash and marketable securities, and will have to borrow more to get the deal done.
– ARM acquisition is unusual for a company that’s preferred to take control through hefty stakes in smaller companies, or those with high-growth potential. And heir apparent, Nikesh Arora, who was brought on board to spearhead a search for the next Alibaba, just quit the company.
– its investment in Sprint Corp., the U.S. carrier that’s whittling away at its losses but remains an enormous drain on capital. While it just cashed out of cash-generating game developer Supercell.



– SoftBank’s progenitor has been at the forefront of technology for 35 years:
– he founded his company to capitalize on the early PC boom,
– invested $20 million in a then-scrappy e-commerce startup Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
– pay 1.8 trillion yen ($17 billion) for Vodafone Group Plc’s Japanese operations even as the economy stalled and larger rivals held sway,challenged older wireless operators in Japan with innovative pricing plans.


Here is the interesting part of the story:

“Yoda said in Star Wars, listen to the Force,” Son said on a call with analysts Monday, adding that now is the best time to buy his company’s debt. “If you listen to the Force, this is the best company to invest in the debt.”

The yield on SoftBank’s 5.375 percent U.S. dollar bonds jumped 30 basis points Monday.

Son dismissed concerns, saying that SoftBank is effectively “net debt zero” because of the value of stakes it holds in other companies.



The next is a Japanese review











– 主にIntel/AMDの2社が知財から製造・販売まで行っている「垂直統合型」
– 「オープン戦略」、ARM社が知財を有し、その知財を製造メーカーにライセンスし、製造メーカーが実際にCPUチップを製造するという形が取られています
– スマホやIoTデバイスなど「スペックはそこそこでいいけどバッテリー重要」というケースで主に利用されています