“They are turning Japanese”

Two recent Bloomberg reports about cash hoarding in China Inc.

 

China Inc. Has $1 Trillion in Cash That It’s Too Scared to Spend

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-02/china-inc-has-1-trillion-in-cash-that-it-s-too-scared-to-spend
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-21/chinese-companies-are-turning-japanese

 

“They are turning Japanese overall”

Chinese firms reported an 18 percent jump in cash holdings during their latest quarter, growing at a faster pace than in the U.S.(5%), Europe(1%) and Japan(13%)

1x-1

The impulse to hoard instead of invest is relatively new considering corporate risk-taking has been rewarded for much of the past 25 years [1]

1x-11The main driver behind M1M2 divergence since mid-2015 has been a demand for deposits by corporates

It’s also something should be forcasted1x-12growth in China’s private spending on fixed assets slumped to to 2.8 percent the weakest level on record

 

Why?

1. debt concern

refinancing debt will become more difficult as the economy slows [2]
“It’s difficult to raise new funds as the stock market is bad right now”

2. “the private side are not very confident” [3]

“a further slowdown in demand for their products, so there is little need to expand production capacity or other fixed assets.”
“A lot of industries that we used to put money in have seen tremendous drop in returns. I dare not invest anymore.”

 

Results

1. corporates may continue to opt to park money at the bank – or send it overseas through buying foreign assets.

It’s not a tradition for China Inc. to appease investors by increasing dividends [4]

2. The government has been forced to pick up the slack, with state firms boosting fixed-asset investment by more than 23% yoy

as government attempts to boost growth by unleashing a wave of cheap credit are falling short

 

 

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